With global energy supplies and prices roiled by the U.S./Israeli war on Iran and the subsequent disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, renewable energy has “risen to the top of the policy agenda in many countries around the world,” the International Energy Agency reports this morning.

“Renewables, already expanding at a record pace before the current energy crisis, are set to see strong growth across a wider range of countries around the world in the coming years as governments seek to strengthen energy security and reduce their exposure to imported fuels and volatile prices,” the Paris-based IEA states in a summary of Renewables 2026, the latest in a series of annual reports on the sector.

The IEA sees global renewable electricity capacity growing by 4,800 gigawatts (that’s 4,800 billion watts) between 2026 and 2031—a 60% larger increase than in the previous six-year span—with solar photovoltaics accounting for three-quarters of the total.

For the first time, the crisis in Hormuz will have emerging and developing economies outside China taking up renewables at the same pace as advanced economies, the IEA says. While China will still be the biggest contributor to the global increase, its share will fall from 60 to 53%, with “stronger policy support and intensified energy security concerns… driving faster deployment of renewable power across India, Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East.”

Over the next five years, renewables are expected to grow from one-third to nearly half of global electricity generation, said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol. Renewable energy for transport will grow by more than 60% by 2031, with electric vehicles accounting for 45% of the increase and projected demand for biofuels rising fast. Battery storage, power system flexibility, and efficiency measures like demand response will also take on greater importance.

While government policies make a difference, consumers are also taking matters into their own hands, the IEA finds. “Faced with high fuel prices and unreliable grid electricity, households and small businesses are increasingly turning to affordable solar PV to improve the reliability of their electricity supply and help lower bills,” the report says, with rooftop solar improving electricity access and services for at least 70 million households since 2022.

“Off-grid solar PV capacity growth is expected to increase by 2.5 times to around 80 GW by 2031, led by Pakistan, sub-Saharan Africa, and Southeast Asia,” the agency says.

Other analysts have been predicting for months that the rapid, global shift to renewables will undercut demand for the oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports the Canadian government has placed at the centre of its sovereignty and trade diversification agenda.

“Previously, environmental concerns were the policy priority behind the growth of renewables, whose falling costs have made them a competitive option in many markets,” Birol said. “But today, it’s mainly energy security that is driving renewables’ expansion.”