Introduction

1.    Distinguished ladies and gentlemen, members of the Media, invited guests, it is a delight for me to welcome you to this important event, which is the release of estimates for the Rebasing of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This event marks the culmination of a long and demanding process of re-estimating the national GDP numbers based on new and more comprehensive information that reflects the changes in the nation's economy over time. 

2.    This rebasing exercise, which we have just completed, not only involves the change in the base year, from 2010 to 2019, but also includes methodological updates based on best practice and official statistical guidelines. It is only by undertaking this rigorous process in our national accounts’ compilations that NBS, as the authoritative source of official statistics in Nigeria, can confidently say that our numbers represent the best estimates of the actual size and structure of the Nigerian economy.

3.    So, before I go into the details and results of the exercise, permit me to sincerely appreciate the hard work, dedication, and commitment of all the staff of NBS, past and present, who worked on this exercise. This is indeed one assignment that has not only been comprehensive in its implementation but also challenging and taxing, given the extent to which we made attempts to ensure coverage of all sectors of the economy. This exercise began in 2018/19, so as you can imagine, a significant amount of work has gone into it. It is only right for me to commend the efforts of all those who have contributed to its successful completion in one way or another. 

4.    As we are all aware, economies are dynamic. They change continually with innovation and new technologies, which alter the production and consumption patterns of individuals, households, firms, and government. Given these changes, it is only right that the parameters used to estimate the size, structure, and movements in the economy are updated periodically, ensuring an accurate and realistic picture of the economy. This is why statistical offices worldwide undertake the process of rebasing. This is not a Nigerian affair; it is a global practice, conventionally done every five years, of course, depending on resource availability and the technical capacity of the statistical office. 

5.    It is also essential to state that the conduct of this exercise is not instituted or directed by the government to fulfil any set target or objectives. This is merely a routine activity, as I mentioned earlier, one that NBS undertakes in fulfilment of our mandate and as a responsible producer and manager of official statistics in Nigeria.

6.    The process of conducting this rebasing exercise, just like any other, requires a massive amount of granular data, and I am proud to say that this one is by far the most comprehensive of any rebasing exercise conducted by the Bureau. For those who can recall, when presenting the results of the 2014 rebasing exercise, with a base year of 2010, the Bureau mentioned that two major activities were missing: the Business Sample Census and the Agriculture Sample Census.

7.    Under this round, however, not only have both censuses been conducted, but other notable data collection activities have also been carried out. This includes the Nigerian Living Standards Survey, which provided data on Households operating non-farming enterprises. Other data collection activities include the National Agricultural Sample Survey, the Annual Business Establishment Survey, the Revised Nigerian Labour Force Survey, and a range of administratively sourced data from Ministries, Departments, and Agencies of the government. 

8.    Due to the elaborate data collection activities embarked on by the Bureau, this led to significant improvements in the coverage of activities such as:

i. Digital Economic Activities

ii. Water Transportation

iii. Activities of Pension Funds Administrators

iv. National Health Insurance Authority [NHIA]

v. Nigerian Social Insurance Trust Fund [NSITF]

vi. Activities of Modular Refineries

vii. Domestic Households as Employers of Labor

viii. Informal Sector Activities; and

ix. Quarrying and Other Mining Activities

9. In addition to this enormous pool of data harnessed during the exercise, other technical and methodological enhancements have also been adopted to align the GDP estimates with international best practices and improve their quality. One such application is the use of Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured (FISIM) in relevant economic activities, including Crude Oil and Natural Gas, Oil Refining, Cement, Rail Transport, and Financial Institutions. 

10. Furthermore, proper classification of economic activities previously misclassified or due to updates in the International Standard of Industrial Classification (ISIC) has been implemented during this round. Most notable of this is the proper classification of the activities under Administrative and Support Services, which were previously classified under Other Services during the last rebasing exercise.

11. All these changes, improvements, and enhanced coverage give us the confidence that these numbers released today represent the best estimates of Nigeria’s national economic output. 

12. In conducting this exercise, NBS, as usual, has not worked alone or in isolation. This exercise, from start to finish, has been conducted in collaboration with relevant partners and stakeholders, both locally and internationally. Partners and collaborators from the government, academia, the private sector, civil society, the development space, and the media have all, in one way or another, participated in this process. This is either during the data collection, analysis, compilation, validation, or consultation processes that we undertook.  Therefore, we can confidently state that, in addition to being the most comprehensive rebasing exercise conducted by the Bureau, it is also the most open and inclusive exercise undertaken by the Bureau.

13. While stating the strengths of this process, I must not fail to state the challenges encountered during this exercise. One of the major concerns is the data sources, both in terms of their availability and validity. The rebasing is a very data-intensive exercise, and any data utilized must be from a reliable and sustainable source, allowing for proper estimation during the exercise and in subsequent periods.

14. With the high level of informality in the economy, added to the poor culture of adequate record-keeping, even within formal establishments, getting reliable data becomes a significant challenge. Added to this issue is the general apathy towards data sharing among major establishments. Simply gaining access to their premises is a significant concern, not to mention obtaining accurate information from them. This culture needs to change, and it needs to change quickly.

15. NBS does not manufacture data. The data we collate, and process is what is supplied to us, which serves as input to the final product. Therefore, when MDAs and Establishments do not supply us with the requested information, it becomes extremely difficult, and sometimes nearly impossible, to do much, leading to underreporting or misrepresentation of the sector. 

16. However, despite this challenge, NBS is still confident that a comprehensive and professional job has been done to generate these preliminary numbers, and as I said earlier, these represent the best estimates for the country. 

17. Now to the results. Following the rebasing exercise and the revision to previously released estimates, I can now report that in 2019, which is the new base year, replacing the old base year of 2010:

a. In nominal terms, Nigeria’s economy was estimated at N205.09 trillion naira, representing a 41.1% increase from the previous base year value. This compares to a 59.5% increase following the previous rebasing exercise in 2014.

b. Following from the above, Total output stood at N213.636 trillion in 2020, N243.302 trillion in 2021, N274.233 trillion in 2022, N314.023 trillion in 2023, and N372.822 trillion in 2024.

c. In real terms, GDP growth rate in 2020 stood at -6.96% and 0.95% in 2021. Higher growth rates were recorded in 2022 and 2023, at 4.32% and 3.04%, respectively. While 2024 recorded a real GDP growth rate of 3.38%. 

d.Ranking the top five economic activities using the 2019 base year, Crop Production came top with (17.58%), trade (17.42%), real estate (10.78%), telecommunications (6.78%), and crude petroleum and natural gas (5.85%).

e. Real estate activity ranked third, displacing crude oil and natural gas to the fifth position. This is due to improved coverage of the informal real estate sector.

f.  Using broad sector classification, the Services sector remained the largest, contributing the highest to GDP at 53.09% in 2019 as against 52.60% in the previously published 2019 estimate. This was followed by Agriculture at 25.83%, and Industries at 21.08%

g. The share of the informal sector contribution to GDP in 2019 was estimated at N86.85 trillion or 42.5%. This is significantly higher than the previous value of N39.00 trillion, which was estimated in 2015. 

18. For Q1 2025: GDP grew by 3.13% (year-on-year) in real terms in the first quarter of 2025. This growth rate is higher than the 2.27% recorded in the first quarter of 2024, following the benchmarking of the estimates.

a.    The performance of the GDP in Q1 2025 was driven mainly by the Services sector, which recorded a growth of 4.33% and contributed 57.50% to the aggregate GDP. 

b.    The agriculture sector grew by 0.07% during the reference quarter, from the -1.79% recorded in the first quarter of 2024. The growth of the industry sector was 3.42%, from 2.35% recorded in the first quarter of 2024.

c.    In terms of share of the GDP, the services and industry sectors contributed more to the aggregate GDP in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the corresponding quarter of 2024.

19.                           Distinguished ladies and gentlemen, following this press briefing, a draft report containing some methodological details will be posted on the NBS website. In the coming days, some reports that served as input into the process will also be released through the website. I encourage everyone to kindly read the reports and seek any necessary clarification to fully understand the process undertaken.

20.                           Let me remind everyone, as we have said on several occasion, this is a routine statistical exercise which is conventionally carried out every 5 years (between 5 and 10 years in most developing countries). As the official statistics office, the NBS has conducted its work in providing data using the best methodology available to us, in line with international standards.

21.                           It is now up to users of the data to apply it to their respective work and programs. We, however, appeal that in so doing, it is done appropriately without dragging the Bureau's name into issues that do not apply to it. We also encourage you to contact the Bureau if you have any questions or concerns about the figures. We will do our best to provide clarifications whenever possible.

22.                           Finally, I want to most sincerely appreciate the support of the Federal Government, through the Honourable Minister for Finance and Coordinating Minister for the Economy, and our Minister, the Honourable Minister for Budget and Economic Planning. I thank them for their strong support and guidance throughout the process. This is what has ensured the completion of this process, and I want to thank them most sincerely.

23.                           I also want to acknowledge the effort and collaboration of development partners such as the IMF, World Bank, and the FAO to the completion of this exercise. We would like to express our sincere appreciation to other partners who have supplied us with data, provided feedback, inputs, and comments during this exercise, including the Central Bank of Nigeria, the Federal Ministry of Communications, Innovation and Digital Economy, the Federal Ministry of Marine and Blue Economy, the Federal Ministry of Solid Minerals Development, the Federal Ministry of Arts, Culture, Tourism and Creative Economy, the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security, the National Orientation Agency, Nigerian Economic Summit Group, the Nigerian Revenue Service (formerly FIRS)[, BudgIT, the Organised Private Sector, Media practitioners, economic experts, and analysts. We are truly grateful for your support and commitment to this exercise.

24.                           To our esteemed users, I say a big thank you to all, and equally commend you for your patience while we put them together. Due to the enormous amount of work involved, it took much longer than expected; however, we are pleased that you now have it for your use.

25.                           Thank you most sincerely for your presence here today. God bless us all.