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Nigeria's Headline Inflation Softens to 21.88%, But CPI Remains Elevated

Nigeria\'s Headline Inflation Softens to 21.88%, But CPI Remains Elevated
Frontier Africa Reports By Frontier Africa Reports • August 16, 2025 at 9:48 AM GMT+1

In July 2025, Nigeria’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) climbed to 125.9, up from 123.4 in June. This shows that prices are still rising, but the headline inflation rate actually eased to 21.88%, slightly down from 22.22% in June.

  • Year-on-Year: Inflation was 11.52% lower than July 2024 (33.40%), mainly because of the change in the CPI base year (now 2024 = 100).

  • Month-on-Month: Prices rose by 1.99% in July, faster than the 1.68% rise in June, meaning the pace of price increases is picking up again on a short-term basis.

Urban vs Rural

  • Urban inflation slowed to 22.01% YoY (down from 35.77% a year earlier) and fell on a monthly basis to 1.86%, compared to June’s 2.11%.

  • Rural inflation was 21.08% YoY (down from 31.26% in July 2024), but monthly inflation jumped to 2.30%, a sharp rise from June’s 0.63%.

Food Inflation

Food inflation, often the most painful for households, eased to 22.74% YoY (vs. 39.53% in July 2024). On a monthly basis, food prices rose 3.12%, slightly slower than June’s 3.25%. The moderation was linked to falling prices of staples like vegetable oil, beans, rice, maize flour, sorghum, wheat flour, and millet.

Core Inflation (Excluding Food & Energy)

Core inflation stood at 21.33% YoY, down from 27.47% in July 2024. On a monthly basis, it slowed sharply to 0.97%, compared to 2.46% in June.

State-Level Highlights

  • Highest YoY Inflation: Borno (34.52%), Niger (27.18%), Benue (25.73%).

  • Lowest YoY Inflation: Yobe (11.43%), Zamfara (12.75%), Katsina (15.64%).

  • Food Inflation YoY: Highest in Borno (55.56%), Osun (29.10%), Ebonyi (29.06%). Lowest in Katsina (6.61%), Adamawa (9.90%), Zamfara (14.72%).

  • On a monthly basis, Borno, Zamfara, and Kano saw the steepest price hikes, while Bauchi, Katsina, and Anambra had the lowest increases. Notably, Zamfara and Bauchi even recorded falls in food inflation.

The Big Picture

  • Inflation is still high but has eased compared to last year due to the new CPI base year.

  • Short-term pressures remain as month-on-month inflation is accelerating again, especially in rural areas and in food prices.

  • Households in Borno and parts of the North are experiencing the sharpest price shocks, while states like Yobe and Zamfara are seeing relief.