Oil Market Highlights 

Crude Oil Price Movements 

In March, the OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) value increased by $48.46/b, month-on-month (m-o-m), to  average $116.36/b. The ICE Brent front-month contract increased by $30.23/b, m-o-m, to average $99.60/b,  and the NYMEX WTI front-month contract increased by $26.48/b, m-o-m, to average $91/b. The GME Oman  front-month contract increased by $56.14/b, m-o-m, to $124.56/b. The Brent–WTI front-month spread  increased by $3.75/b, m-o-m, to average $8.60/b. The forward curves of all major crude futures benchmarks  – ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI, and GME Oman – steepened sharply, and the calendar spreads between the  nearest futures contracts moved into deeper backwardation. Hedge funds and other money managers turned  increasingly bullish on oil, sharply increasing their net long positions amid supply disruptions and higher oil  prices. 

World Economy 

The global economic growth forecasts remain unchanged from last month’s assessment at 3.1% for 2026 and  3.2% for 2027. The US economic growth forecasts remain at 2.2% for 2026 and 2.0% for 2027. In the  Eurozone, the economic growth forecasts remain at 1.2% for both 2026 and 2027. Japan’s economic growth  forecasts remain at 0.9% for both 2026 and 2027. The economic growth forecasts for China remain at 4.5%  for both 2026 and 2027. India’s economic growth forecasts remain at 6.6% for 2026 and 6.5% for 2027. Brazil’s  economic growth forecasts remain at 2.0% for 2026 and 2.2% for 2027. Russia’s economic growth forecasts remain at 1.3% for 2026 and 1.5% for 2027. 

World Oil Demand 

The global oil demand is forecast to grow by a healthy 1.4 mb/d in 2026, y-o-y, unchanged from last month’s  assessment. The OECD is forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by about  1.3 mb/d. In 2027, global oil demand is forecast to grow by about 1.3 mb/d, y-o-y, also unchanged from last  month’s assessment. The OECD is forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, while the non-OECD is forecast to grow by  around 1.2 mb/d. 

World Oil Supply 

Non-DoC liquids production (i.e., liquids production from countries not participating in the Declaration of  Cooperation) is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026, unchanged from last month’s assessment.  The main drivers of liquids production growth are expected to be Brazil, US, Canada, and Argentina. In 2027,  non-DoC liquids production is forecast to grow by about 0.6 mb/d, also unchanged from last month’s  assessment, driven mainly by Brazil, Qatar, Canada, and Argentina. Natural gas liquids (NGLs) and non 

conventional liquids from countries participating in the DoC are forecast to grow by 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, in 2026,  to average about 8.8 mb/d, followed by similar growth in 2027 of about 0.1 mb/d, y-o-y, to average about  8.9 mb/d. In March, crude oil production by countries participating in the DoC dropped by 7.70 mb/d, m-o-m,  to average about 35.06 mb/d, according to available secondary sources. 

Product Markets and Refining Operations 

In March, refining margins surged across all major regions, given the sharp reduction in product output and  rising middle distillate crack spreads, which reached multi-year highs. Trade flow constraints and refinery run  cuts in the East of Suez contributed further pressure on product margins amid the heavy refinery maintenance  season. This situation led to a price increase for products that outpaced the rise in feedstock prices, boosting  refining profitability. On the US Gulf Coast (USGC), the upside came from across the barrel, mainly driven by  middle distillates. In Rotterdam, the gains offset losses in gasoline and low-sulphur fuel oil, while in Singapore, 

all products except middle distillates showed losses, as a sharp increase in feedstock prices limited any further  upside for Asian refining economics.

OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report – April 2026 iii 

Oil Market Highlights 

Tanker Market 

In March, trade disruptions and moves to source alternative supplies pushed dirty tanker spot freight rates to  record levels. On the West Africa-to-East route, VLCC spot freight rates rose 34%, m-o-m. Suezmax spot  freight rates on the USGC-to-Europe route jumped 104%, m-o-m. Aframax rates were particularly strong West  of Suez, with the Intra-Mediterranean route increasing 68%, while the Indonesia-to-East route experienced  more limited gains of 8%, m-o-m. Clean tanker spot freight rates also strengthened, led by West of Suez routes,  which averaged 86% higher, m-o-m. East of Suez routes also exhibited gains, up 54% over the same period.  

Crude and Refined Product Trade 

US crude imports remained steady, m-o-m, in March, at 6.6 mb/d. US crude exports fell below year-ago levels,  averaging 3.8 mb/d. US product exports were exceptionally strong, averaging 7.4 mb/d. In February,  OECD Europe crude imports edged back into the five-year range. Product imports into the OECD Europe  region also strengthened. Japan’s crude imports moved above the five-year average in February to stand at  2.6 mb/d. Product exports from Japan remained at the upper end of the five-year range, despite a m-o-m  decline as strong gasoline and gasoil outflows eased. China’s crude imports averaged 12.6 mb/d in February,  well above the five-year range for that month. Product imports into China surged on strong feedstock inflows.  India’s crude imports moved above 5 mb/d in February amid a jump in imports from Russia. Product imports  into India fell from elevated levels but remained at the upper end of the five-year average. 

Commercial Stock Movements 

Preliminary February 2026 data show that OECD commercial oil inventories increased by 6.2 mb, m-o-m, to  stand at 2,826 mb. At this level, OECD commercial stocks were 89.8 mb higher, y-o-y, and 38.5 mb above the  latest five-year average, but 93.9 mb below the 2015–2019 average. Within the components, crude stocks  increased by 42.9 mb while product stocks decreased by 36.7 mb, m-o-m. OECD commercial crude oil stocks  stood at 1,366 mb. This was 53.2 mb higher, y-o-y, and 11.1 mb above the latest five-year average, but  81.4 mb below the 2015–2019 average. OECD total product stocks stood at 1,460 mb in February. This was  36.6 mb higher, y-o-y, and 27.4 mb above the latest five-year average, but 12.5 mb below the 2015–2019  average. In terms of days of forward cover, OECD commercial stocks increased by 0.5 days m-o-m in  February, to 62.5 days. This was 1.9 days higher than in February 2025, 0.3 days above the latest five-year  average, and in line with the 2015–2019 average. 

Balance of Supply and Demand 

The demand for DoC crude (i.e., crude from countries participating in the DoC) in 2026 remains unchanged from the previous month’s assessment to stand at 42.9 mb/d. This is about 0.6 mb/d higher than in 2025. The  demand for DoC crude in 2027 also remains unchanged from the previous month’s assessment to stand at  43.6 mb/d. This is about 0.6 mb/d higher than the 2026 forecast.